Can one football team earn you a living?

A few years ago I worked with a database professional who had worked inside the gaming industry. I mentioned my interest in analysing betting data, and he said that it was a little known fact that if you always backed Manchester United to win, then over time you'd always make a profit.

Could it really be that simple? I often wondered. The conversation came back to me a couple of weeks ago so I thought I would see what the data actually said.

Let's start with 2010, and take it from there.

I have exported the data out of my database into Excel and pasted a screen grab below. We are thirty matches in and it's not looking pretty: Three grand outlay in stakes and just over £1400 back in winnings.

Let's just graph the rest of the season...

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So this is how the 2010-2011 season would've played out if you'd put a £100 level stake on Man U:

It's slightly disappointing viewing... but the bookmakers aren't in the business of giving away free money.

Let's take a look at 2011 and see if they fared any better:

As you can see, around week 31 it all got close to profit, but it looks like the exception rather than the rule:

Let's have a quick look at 2012:

I don't think it's a coincidence that it was in this year that I had the conversation about Man U's long-term profitability. Looks like the data says very much otherwise.

Lets try 2013-2014:

Ouch - not a great year.

I think we can all see where this is going, but let's have 2014 - 2015 for completeness' sake:

Yep - once again that wasn't so great.

I Will do a full analysis across all the European domestic football to see if that pattern is borne out across all the teams. I am pretty sure it will be,

Also - just this week I have got hold of a copy of Paul Steele's legendary book "Profitable Football Betting", in which he details fifteen systems and evaluates their profitability. It's an old book but it is considered the bible in this arena, so it will be interesting to put some of his rating systems to test. More on that to come.

If you have any questions or comments, please do so below. Thanks for reading, more soon.

Jamie

PS. This strategy won't make you any money - but maybe you should read my latest post:

http://footballbettinganalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/the-best-way-ive-yet-seen-to-profit.html

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